When last we left this World Series Preview, I had predicted the Yankees to win in seven games. Truth be told, I was a little surprised to see Cliff Lee nonchalantly out-duel CC Sabathia, but probably not as surprised as everyone who picked New York to win in six games. That being said, I believe this makes my prediction look that much stronger now. And with that stunning segue, let me explain why, in the continuation of
THE
2009WORLDSERIES(IN-SERIES)PREVIEWPart 1: Recent History
Did you know the Yankees and the Phillies have already met three times this season? Of course you did, because the only things more advertised than Inter-league Play are Cash-4-Gold and syndicated re-runs of The Office (neither of which are complaints, mind you).
In any event, what I had failed to realize was the Phillies took the season series, 2-1, in New York no less. Backed by four homers - two of which I'm assuming would have been fly balls in any other stadium - Philly took game 1 by a score of 7-3. Brett Myers got the win, which does little help now as he won't be making a World Series start, and AJ Burnett took the loss, giving up five runs over six innings. The Phillies pounded out 14 hits, at least one by every member of the lineup except Ryan Howard.
The Yankees tied it up at a game a piece by pounding then-beleaguered closer, Brad Lidge. J.A. Happ actually out-pitched Andy Pettitte in this one, giving up two runs over six innings compared to Pettitte's four over seven. But it wasn't enough, as the Yanks got three off of Lidge in the ninth, utilizing a National League-style attack by pinch hitting not once but twice in the either inning (the actual National League team? No pinch hitters. We'll come back to this later).
Lidge didn't fair much better in the rubber game, blowing a 3-2 lead in the 9th before his teammates bailed him out in the 11th, winning 4-3. Neither starting pitcher figured figured into the decision. Hamels went a respectable six innings, allowing two runs, while Sabathia pitched a strong eight and allowed three to score. Brett Tomko took the loss for the Yanks, which again does little to help us as he is not featured on the World Series Roster.
So what can we take from these three match-ups?
- The Phillies have no problem hitting in Yankee Stadium
- No one has any problem hitting in Yankee Stadium
- Brad Lidge was a liability
- Philly can win without Ryan Howard getting a hit
- Things change greatly in the course of a few months
Part 2: Hitting
The Phillies were 21st in MLB in batting average for the regular season. In the playoffs, they're tied for first. They're also first in Times-Being-Referred-To-As-An-American-League-Style-Lineup. What does that mean? Basically it means they can hit, while inferring that most, if not all, other National League teams can't.
The Yankees also feature an American-League-Style-Lineup. Not only that, they feature the best American-League-Style-Lineup, in that they have the best lineup in the American League. They were first - not just in the AL, but in all of MLB - in runs, hits, home-runs, RBIs, BBs, OBP, SLP, OPS, as well as HKL, WJAW, and HwTq9T. The last three are categories that had to be created because the Yankees lineup is so good it could not be sufficiently quantified by conventional baseball statistics.
1-6, these teams actually have fairly comparable lineups. Take a look:
PHILLIES YANKEES
| 1. | J. Rollins, SS | D. Jeter, SS |
| 2. | S. Victorino, CF | J. Damon, LF |
| 3. | C. Utley, 2B | M. Teixeira, 1B |
| 4. | R. Howard, 1B | A. Rodriguez, 3B |
| 5. | J. Werth, RF | H. Matsui, DH |
| 6. | R. Ibanez, LF | R. Cano, 2B |
Which means the World Series will undoubtedly be decided by the bottom three of each lineup. Get ready for this marketable match-up:
I can't wait to hear "World Series MVP, Jerry Hairston, Jr."
The real problem the Phillies face is the same problem every National League team faces in the World Series: Joe Buck's announcing... I mean the DH. Yankee DH Hideki Matsui offers the following contribution:
| 2009 STATS |
| BA | HR | RBI | OBP | SLG |
| .274 | 28 | 90 | .367 | .509 |
Pit that against make-shift Philadelphia DH, Matt Stairs:
| 2009 STATS |
| BA | HR | RBI | OBP | SLG |
| .194 | 5 | 17 | .357 | .379 |
I'm not sure what's more terrifying, his batting average or his profile photo.
The counter argument to this is that the Yankees will be without the use of a DH when they travel to Philadelphia. However, it seems far more likely that Matsui moves to the outfield and prospective-series-MVP Hairston Jr. will move to the bench. In this scenario, the Yankees lineup actually improves, while giving them another pinch-hitting option off the bench - something Joe Girardi seems to have grown quite fond of in this postseason.
Slight advantage: YANKEES
Part 3: Pitching
Let's start with, what else, the starters.
PHILADELPHIA / NEW YORK
|
| Cliff Lee | CC Sabathia
|
| Pedro Martinez | AJ Burnett |
| Cole Hamels | Andy Pettitte |
Let's pretend it's late March, early April. You're sitting on your couch, watching Baseball Tonight while practicing your crocheting and giving your feet a nice soak. Out of nowhere, you're accosted by the spirit of Steve Phillips. He's come from the future, and he's momentarily stopped having affairs with young production assistants long enough to tell you that Pedro Martinez is going to start Game 2 of the World Series this October. The jolt of the shock - not of seeing Phillips be able to pull himself away from his poor decisions, but rather the notion that Pedro Martinez would be pitching for a playoff team in a meaningful situation - propels you into an epileptic seizure, wherein you spin around, knock your TV set into your foot bath and end up electrocuting yourself, while simultaneously falling on your crocheting needle, which impales you through the heart. At least in this situation, you are not making a conscious decision to have Pedro Martinez kill you. In Charlie Manuel's case, he is.
I get that this man likes to play hunches. More so, I agree with the decision to separate Hamels from Lee, who have similar pitching styles and are more effective against lineups when not faced on consecutive days. But starting Pedro Martinez in Game 2? This is Philadelphia's best option? What about Joe Blanton? What about J.A. Happ? Even Brett Myers. I love the idea of seeing Pedro pitch again in Yankee Stadium. Who wouldn't be excited by that? Well, probably Philly fans.
This is where that AL/NL thing comes back into play. Sure, Pedro had a good September, but it was against NL lineups. TRUE NL lineups (not the Phillies). Like it or not, getting one batter off every 9 makes a difference for a starting pitcher, and changes the dynamic of a lineup. I just can't see Pedro continuing that sort of success against the Yankees. Even if the Phillies offense manages to bail him out, that's an uneasy place to be starting from.
Advantage: Yankees
Part 3.5: Bullpen
For the Yankees, it's Project: Get To Mo. If Joba Chamberlain, Phil Coke, and Phil Hughes can hold leads and bridge the gap to the 9th (or 8th, as it's looking like more often), the Yankees look pretty strong. If they can't, who knows.
For the Phillies, it's Project: Who? Madson? Lidge? It's hard to say who's going to be there at the end. It's even harder to say how either will produce in the role.
This part is boring me, so let's skip to the end.
INTANGIBLES
Advantage: Phillies. And here's why:
I like Joe Girardi, and I like the way he's been managing this postseason, but that's also partly because I don't like the Yankees and want them to lose. Girardi's late-inning decision making, which borders on knit-picking, seems questionable at best. It hasn't cost the Yankees to this point, but what happens if and when he pulls his 5 hitter in the 8th, the Phillies force extra innings, and then you're left with Brett Gardner batting in extra innings? Answer: Brett Gardner probably does something amazing and the Yankees win. But theoretically, this is a bad move. Also, Girardi has never one a world series as a manager. Manuel has. That means nothing, which is why I put it in the intangibles section.
I picked the Phillies to lose in the Division Series, then again in NLCS. I picked the Yankees to win every round. I see no point in changing my tendencies now.
This concludes the 2009 WORLD SERIES (IN-SERIES) PREVIEW. To recap, it's Yankees in 7. Why, well, maybe Steve Phillips knows...